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A simple way to come up with a theory of change

This opinion piece is over 5 years old
 

Matt Kepple explains how charities care measure their impact with a simple theory of change

Theories of change look daunting and complicated. A quick search on Google Images reveals a smattering of diagrams, flow charts, arrows and coloured boxes which are difficult to read let alone understand. But we know that theories of change can be useful, so do they really need to be this complicated?

The answer is, no they don’t. There is a simpler way to think about your theory of change and it borrows a principle from the logic model. Logic models are ways of thinking about your impact in a series of steps starting with your inputs (i.e. your budget: the things you put in to the project) and include a variety of terms ranging from outputs to outcomes. People often misinterpret the difference between outputs and outcomes, so we're not going to dwell on those differences but instead consider a simpler way forward.

Change is a Process. Fundamentally, what you’re trying to articulate with your theory of change, logic model or grant application, is the potentially unique process through which your organisation or project is able to create change. There are several steps you can take to articulate your process in plain English.

Matt Kepple
Matt Kepple

Firstly, what are the activities you provide? These are easy to count and can take the form of things like the number of sessions you run of each type.

Then you need to think about participation and who gets involved. People will hopefully participate in your activities, so that's what you can track. Next think about examples of things you can track such as the number of attendees at each session, their age gender and demographic splits and who attended specifically.

The next stage is to think about what changes as a result of people’s participation in your activities, in particular are there any changes in how people think? Change always begins in the mind. Consider whether there has been a change in ability, attitude, knowledge and beliefs among the people you work with.

Then note if there are any changes in what people do. For most of the projects we work on, we are not content to see a change in how people think. Fundamentally we want to change their behaviour. What changes do you expect to see as a result of your project across each of your stakeholder groups? They may be things like what someone does, an uptake of a habit, government policy or company policy.

Until finally, as a result of doing new things, people have better health, more money, better relationships, safer streets, etc. You can track whether there has been a change in things like wellbeing or savings to the economy.

All of this connects together. Now you have a practical version of your theory of change, connect all the dots and add it to a document. You can download this template here and use it to plot out your metrics.

And you can get feedback on your theory of change. Create a free account on www.makerble.com and upload your theory of change. You can ask for it to be reviewed for free. You can also explore other people's theories of change and browse various theories of change which have been created by individuals and organisations.

Matt Kepple is chief executive of Makerble, a third sector online impact database.