Demand will massively outstrip available workforce in 10 years
Scotland's social care sector faces a massive staffing crisis, a new report warns.
Demand for care home places is expected to grow 70% in 10 years with more than 90,000 new staff needed over the next two decades to cope with the rising number of over-85s.
Over the same time period, the number of people of working age is projected to fall by 171,000.
The shortfall in available staff is thought to be worst in Lanarkshire, Fife and the Highlands.
JLL, which provides property services in the care home industry, say demand for beds will reach 63,000 places by 2036, compared to 37,500 today.
The number of Scottish over-85s will more than double to 250,000 during this period, according to current projections.
A report from the firm titled The Social Care Deficit said £3.5bn in new investment would be needed in Scotland's care home sector alone.
Alan Bennett, director at JLL Alternatives in Scotland, said: "Our report shows a growing need across Scotland for additional staff in the care sector to look after older people with long-term care needs.
"However, the issue of staff shortages is severely compounded by a reduction in the pool of the working age population.
"Based on our projections, the shortfalls will be most pronounced in Lanarkshire, Fife and the Highlands."
Fiona McKay from Fife Health and Social care Partnership, said: “We have developed a range of models of community care as part of our strategic planning process, to ensure that people receive the right care and support, at the right time, in the right setting based on individual needs.”
The shortfalls will be most pronounced in Lanarkshire, Fife and the Highlands - Alan Bennett
Meanwhile a spokeswoman for Health and Social Care North Lanarkshire said it was working to address the problem, including creating a Health and Social Care Academy aimed at creating jobs in the sector.
Health secretary Shona Robison said that the NHS was investing almost half a billion of frontline funding into social care and integration giving more people the right care in the right setting.
She said: “The integration of health and social care plays a key part in this, by placing a greater emphasis on community-based and preventative care, which will equip our services for future challenges.”
